Predictive models of the 2015 Rugby World Cup: accuracy and application

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Author
O'Donoghue, Peter
Ball, D.
Eustace, J.
McFarlan, B.
Nisotaki, M.
Date
2016-07-27Acceptance date
2016
Type
Article
Publisher
Sciendo
ISSN
1684-4769
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
The current investigation compared 12 models of outcomes of international rugby
union matches and then used the most accurate model to investigate performances
within the 2015 Rugby World Cup. The underlying linear regression models
were used within a simulation package that introduced random variability about
performance evidenced by the residual distribution of the regression analyses.
Each model was used within 10,000 simulations of the 2015 Rugby World Cup
from which match outcome and team progression statistics were recorded. The
most accurate model with respect to the actual 2015 tournament was developed
using data from all seven previous tournaments rather than restricting cases to the
most recent three tournaments. The model was more accurate when the data used
violated the assumptions of linear regression rather than transforming variables to
satisfy the assumptions. The model included World ranking points as a predictor
variable and was more accurate than corresponding models that represented
relative home advantage as well. The most accurate model used separate models
for the pool and knockout stage matches although the 9 models that separating
these match types were less accurate on average than when the two match types
were considered together. This model was used to investigate properties of the
2015 Rugby World Cup. The tournament disadvantaged three teams in the
World’s top 5 who were drawn in the same pool. Teams ranked in the World’s
top 7 did not perform as well as predicted while teams ranked 16th and below
performed better than predicted suggesting that the strength in depth in
international rugby union is increasing. There was a small effect of having
additional recovery days from the previous match compared to the opponents
which was worth 4.1 points. The information produced by this research should be
considered by those design tournaments such as the Rugby World Cup.
Journal/conference proceeding
International Journal of Computer Science in Sport;
Citation
O’Donoghue, P., Ball, D., Eustace, J., McFarlan, B. and Nisotaki, M. (2016) 'Predictive models of the 2015 Rugby World Cup: Accuracy and application', International Journal of Computer Science in Sport, 15(1), pp.37-58. DOI: 10.1515/ijcss-2016-0003.
Description
Article published in International Journal of Computer Science in Sport on 27 July 2016, available open access at: https://doi.org/10.1515/ijcss-2016-0003.
Sponsorship
Cardiff Metropolitan University (Grant ID: Cardiff Metropolian (Internal))
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