Origins and outcomes of team possession in relation to game outcome in NBA basketball

Abstract

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between origins and outcomes of possession in basketball, as well as indentifying how these origins and outcomes differed between winning and losing teams. The sample was made up of NBA basketball games (n=10) from the 2005/6 season. A system was created to collect data on origins and outcomes and Cohen’s Kappa test was used to ensure the system was reliable (0.987). Once data collection was finished the processing took place in Microsoft Excel and SPSS. The two main methods of analysis used to produce the results were percentages and a Wilcoxon signed ranks test. The study produced several insightful findings, the most noticeable being within the realm of turnovers. Out of the eight possible origins considered, results found that the highest outcome of shot success (40.47 percent) followed an interception. In addition to this, the results surprisingly showed that winning teams turned the ball over more than losing teams. Finally in conjunction with this the Wilcoxon test showed that losers had significantly more interceptions than winners. Implications for coaches included the importance of encouraging pressure defence to increase the chances of starting possession with an interception as the origin, and thus improve chances of getting a high percentage shot as an outcome. Future research should attempt to analyse origins and outcomes with greater consideration for their relationship, and take into account the events occurring after an origin that are causing the outcomes. This approach may provide a more detailed insight into origins and outcomes and help coaches establish how to better prepare their teams for different situations orientated around which origin of possession has occurred.