The probability of winning break points in Grand Slam men's singles tennis
Taylor & Francis
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The probability of winning games of tennis has been modelled in terms of the probability of the server winning an individual point. These models are based on the assumptions of stationarity of the point and interdependence. Stationarity is the assumption that the outcome of tennis points is not influenced by the game score at the beginning of the point. The purpose of the current investigation was to compare the outcomes of tennis points during break points and non-break points using data from 528 men's singles tennis matches from all four Grand Slam tournaments in 2008 and 2009. The retrospective probability of the receiver winning a point was 0.42 ± 0.23 during break points which was significantly greater than the 0.38 ± 0.10 during non-break points (P < 0.001). This, in turn, led to players creating significantly more break points than expected (P < 0.001) and breaking serve more frequently than expected (P < 0.001) for the points won when receiving serve. This is evidence that stationarity cannot be assumed and that models of winning tennis games may need to be enhanced to address improved receiver performance during break points.
European Journal of Sport Science;
European Journal of Sport Science Volume 12 (6), pages 462-468 (2012)
- Sport Research Groups 
Yn dangos eitemau sy’n perthyn drwy deitl, awdur, pwnc a chrynodeb.
O'Donoghue, Peter (2012)The current investigation was composed of two related studies. The aim of the first study was to compare the proportion of break points and non-break points won by players receiving serve in matches of the 2011 US Open ...
Moss, Ben; O'Donoghue, Peter (Taylor & Francis, 2015-12-01)Most of the research in racket sports has focussed on point outcomes rather than point sequences and other events that may trigger positive or negative momentum. Therefore, the purpose of the current investigation was to ...
O'Donoghue, Peter (Taylor & Francis, 2001-06-01)Various mathematical models of tennis have determined the probability of the superior player winning under different scoring systems (for example standard sets and tie-break sets). These models are all based on the ...