The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and its applicability to the Bulgarian stock exchange

Abstract

This study examines the applicability of the efficient market hypothesis on the Bulgarian stock exchange. Fama (1970) and his followers are on the opinion that markets could not be predicted as they are moving in a random manner. Furthermore, they believe that the relevant market information is fairly distributed between investors and is incorporated in the current market price in every single moment. On the other hand, the opponents of the efficient market hypothesis claim that emotions are the main drivers of price movements which could lead to the creation of significant inefficiencies like market bubbles. Additionally, according to scholars and practicians rejecting the EMH, stock prices could be predicted by using different analytical tools. The first part of the dissertation includes the main objectives of the study and the relevant research questions. The second chapter presents the vast amount of literature regarding the efficient markets as well as studies revealing the level of efficiency of other emerging markets. The methodology section presents the main techniques applied by the author. As the aim of this research is to reveal the level of efficiency of the local market the author applied a deductive approach. The findings and analysis chapters include the outcomes of the survey and comparison between the conclusion of the secondary and primary research. The last two chapters provide conclusions and recommendations with regard to the level of efficiency of the Bulgarian stock market, the predictive power of different analytical tools and the additional analysis needed to be conducted.