Evaluating the validity of a basketball performance metric in correlation with winning and losing games

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Author
Blake, Barnabas
Date
2015Type
Dissertation
Publisher
Cardiff Metropolitan University
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The aim of this dissertation project was to evaluate the validity of the novel Preventions
metric, developed by Rodriguez (2013b), in correlation with performance indicators
previously defined as discriminants of winning and losing games. The sample consisted of
a selection of games from the 2012 Olympic Basketball Tournament for Women (n=18),
categorised into two pools, close (n=9; x < 5 points) and unbalanced (n=9; 20 points < x <
40 points), based on final score-line differential. Box score data was scraped from the
official FIBA Olympic archives to produce game-related statistics and advanced statistics;
while Preventions metric data was recorded using hand notation. Descriptive statistics
were generated to distinguish the differences in absolute values between the sample
groups; Mann-Whitney U Tests were then performed to identify the significance of these
differences. Winners and losers were differentiated by points prevented (p < 0.05), shots
challenged (p < 0.05) and botched passes (p < 0.05). Pearson’s correlation data was
produced to determine the strength of relationship between the new Preventions metric
and academically proven advanced statistics. The variables correlating with the advanced
statistics were points prevented (p < 0.01), shots challenged (p < 0.05) and botched
passes (p < 0.05). The findings clearly identified points prevented, shots challenged and
botched passes as significant variables to be considered as performance indictors due to
their discriminant powers and correlation with peer-reviewed advanced statistics. This
suggests that coaches should emphasise their defensive strategies regarding closing-out
on shooters and disrupting passing lanes through on-ball pressure and off-ball denial
defense.
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