Complex simulation of entrepreneurial opportunity emergence: The case of Nigerian entrepreneurship

Abstract

The current policy and public debate on the overall topic of entrepreneurship pays little attention to a more specific and developing property of entrepreneurship such as the emergence of an entrepreneur. This study examines the emergence of entrepreneurs through their behavioural interaction amongst one another and their environment. As a research methodology, agent based modelling was adopted for this research over system dynamics because, individual interactions (behavioural reactions/responses) between each entity and the immediate universe (environment) is the crucial unit for determination of the research results. In order to correctly capture this concept, interactions in the forms of personality trait attributes, social networking, technological acquaintance, environment (niche) and previous know-how (prior knowledge) were considered as the behaviours of study using agent based model. To achieve this, these entities were broken into their sub attributes in Bayesian probability model to provide statistical data for the behavioural analysis and a NetLogo simulation tool was used to reproduce a visual behavioural pattern of the agents (entrepreneurs) within an artifitial universe. It is this process of using simulation to study entrepreneurial behaviour that is called “Simuprenuership” within this study. The emergent patterns and behaviours implies that, entrepreneurship is an emergent process that takes form during and within the interactions between the agents and the environment. This suggest that variations in the smallest attributes of the agents could completely result in an unpredictable emergence. Hence, discernment process is not suuficient to explain entrepreneurship as in the literature. therefore, there is a necessity to move from cognition, illumination or insightful way of entrepreneurial thinking, to a more holistic and evolutionary system of thinking, this study adopted an emergent system of thinking. This infers that entrepreneurial ideas and opportunities emerge from a mindset that is a system function of entrepreneurial qualities, expertise, and knowledge. Hence, I presume that entrepreneurship is not 'flat' but instead emerges from a dynamic procedure.